In a brilliant tactical maneuver, the U.S. has positioned the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Mediterranean to mount an attack on Iran. This “Mediterranean shortcut” allows the U.S. to project power without needing the permission of regional states like the UAE, who have refused to facilitate an assault. The Iranian government is bracing for an “over-the-horizon” strike that could come from a direction they are least prepared to defend.
By operating from international waters in the west, the U.S. Navy can launch cruise missiles and long-range stealth sorties that pass through international or neutral airspace. This strategic independence has left Tehran’s diplomacy in tatters; their attempts to pressure neighbors into blocking U.S. action have been rendered moot by the carrier’s location. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that ignores the regional “red lines” they worked so hard to establish.
The tactical advantage of the Mediterranean deployment is matched by a psychological one. It signals to the Iranian leadership that the U.S. is not dependent on local allies and is willing to act unilaterally. This “unilateralism” is exactly what has caused the Tehran stock market to crash, as investors realize that the regime’s regional “shield” of allies has been completely bypassed by a single carrier strike group.
The Iranian foreign ministry has complained that this “goes against the principles of the international system,” but their warnings of “insecurity for everyone” have lost their sting. If the U.S. can strike from the Mediterranean, they can avoid many of the immediate retaliatory threats that Iran has traditionally used to keep the West at bay. The Iranian government is bracing for a war that is being fought on American terms, not theirs.
As the carrier prepares for its upcoming exercises, the “Mediterranean shortcut” remains the most significant tactical development of the crisis. The Iranian government is bracing for a rain of fire from a sea they don’t control, delivered by a fleet they can’t reach. The “over-the-horizon” threat has become a very near-term reality.